Monday, 19 October 2009

Gold v lithium

My first post on the metals markets. Gold is expensive at the moment and Fortune warns of a bubble. I have to agree. There is little intrinsic value in gold. It looks pretty much like brass and has few industrial uses that need much of it. It is an excellent conductor but circuits only need tiny amounts of it. Jewellery uses it mainly because it is expensive, but the real value of that must lie below the $300 mark since the market wasn't demanding significantly more gold jewellery even at that point. So there is no good reason why it should remain at today's level, and it won't. Once the recession starts to recede, its value will fall back to a sensible level. You don't want to be holding significant amounts then, because it may be quite a while till the next crisis forces its value back up again.

Lithium on the other hand will be in great demand as electric cars pick up over the next decade. The price can only increase, especially given the difficult regimes where much of the reserves are.

Sell your gold and buy lithium futures.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Buy lithium futures yes.....but where are they available ? which stock markets ?

Ian Pearson said...

Futures in stock markets tend to be for 6 months, this trend is longer term than that, so I would recommend shares in companies involved in lithium mining instead.

Anonymous said...

You obviously suffer horribly from NORMALCY BIAS. HAVE YOU ANY IDEA WHO, AND WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE DOES?? TALK TO ME WHEN
THE "DOLLAR BUBBLE" CRASHES. KEEP
WATCHING MSNBC.

Ian Pearson said...

I certainly don't Anonymous, check my most recent paper on sustainability,http://futurizon.com/articles/sustainingtheearth.pdf which lists an estimated expectation date for extinction. I am well aware of potential for disaster and factor in reasonable estimates when I do my work.

This blog entry is very old, and since then, the likely demand for lithium has shrunk thanks to new technology breakthroughs, so I wouldn't invest in lithium now either.